Industry, academia join hands to forecast India’s economic growth

NEW DELHI: In a first of its kind initiative, industry and academia will jointly forecast and scrutinise India's economic growth, conduct state level studies and analyse issues related to trade and exchange rate.

To strengthen research in these areas, Institute for Economic Growth, a think tank in Delhi University has partnered with Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and almost a dozen economists of banks, mutual funds and rating agencies associated with the industry chamber.

"The plan is to do sectoral and macroeconomic studies and present their results to various stakeholders including government," said a person aware of the partnership which was forged on Monday.

The two organisations will explore joint-collaboration in areas such as macro-economic forecasting and agriculture-industry interface.

"These are pertinent issues which would support the policy advocacy efforts for mutual benefit of both CII and IEG," said CII in a statement.

Though the modalities and timelines are yet to be decided, the person said that agreement will help create consensus between industry and academia on issues of national interest.

The move comes at a time when the official growth data has been under the lens. India’s nominal GDP grew 11% in 2016-17 from 9.9% in 2015-16 despite demonetisation and even when the real GDP fell to 7.1% from 8% in the same period.

“Many members of the industry say they do not feel the high level of economic growth," said an economist present at the meeting.

Independent economists have forecast India's gross domestic product to have grown 6.5% in the first quarter of 2017-18, lower than the 7.9% growth in the year ago period.

"So, they want the IEG to try and get access to MCA 21 data to corroborate the performance of corporate earnings with the official growth numbers,” the economist added.

The statistics office is scheduled to release the official growth numbers on Thursday.