Going, going, hope it goes through

It could be 12 hectic months ahead for Shourie and a new secretary in the disinvestment ministry, the political environment willing. Although almost 30 transactions are in various stages of execution, completion of big-ticket ones such as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Shipping Corporation of India and National Aluminium would give the privatisation programme the bang it desperately needs and embellish the Budget with its glittering riches.
However uncertainties on disinvestment have not altogether disappeared. Take, for instance, the privatisation of HPCL. The employees’ union have already threatened to go on a strike. Worse, they have threatened to do a Nalco on HPCL.
The current fiscal has seen limited action: Indian Petrochemical Corporation sale to Reliance Industries, transfer of management control in Maruti Udyog to Suzuki Motors Corporation, Hindustan Zinc Corporation’s acquisition by Sterlite Industries and a string of ITDC hotels privatisations.
Total receipts from core disinvestment transactions are less than Rs 3,400 crore. And all indications are that they’ll stay there. After all the hype, the Maruti public issue is set to spill over to the next fiscal.
Disinvestment secretary Pradip Baijal has said it should be completed by May ‘03. The current year’s Budget target for public sector restructuring, a head that derives from bureaucratic padding of uncertain disinvestment with the more reliable proceeds of special dividends from PSUs, has been set at Rs 12,000 crore. Milking of some profitable PSUs through interim and special dividends would take the total to Rs 5,000-6,000 crore.
Government sources say the target for the next fiscal would be set at Rs 15,000 crore. In the best case scenario, if opposition to the privatisation process gets diluted, the government could very well exceed the target.
After all, the line-up of selloff candidates is very impressive. HPCL transactions alone would fetch the government about Rs 8,000 crore, and even more, if the bidding gets very aggressive.
Then other transaction such as National Fertilisers, Engineers India Ltd, Shipping Corporation, State Trading Corporation, Hindustan Organic Chemicals and a few other PSUs could together fetch the government some Rs 5,000 crore more.
In the business as usual scenario, the government would be lucky if it got to the Rs 10,000 crore mark even with an impressive line of candidates on the block.