Food crop yield a freedom tool
There can be no single elixir for the problem of shortage that looms large over the food sector. An appropriate mix of producer support price and supportive measures is needed.
By TNN |
There can be no single elixir for the problem of shortage that looms large over the food sector. An appropriate mix of producer support price and supportive measures is needed.
Here is an indicative list of the required policy mix: deficiency payments in the form of weather insurance, derivatives, etc; decentralised procurement for the targeted PDS; imports to cover short supply; export incentivisation; optimal and effective use of wasteland to mend for the shrinking cultivable land; balanced use of pesticides, fertilisers and soil nutrients; use of new farming technologies like GenX hybrids and latest irrigation techniques.
A liberalised market (read a thriving and mature forward market for commodities), free movement of farm produce and labour, and minimal government intervention are imperative. A focused plan of action can be spelt out in the form a new policy.
One development that went unnoticed this week was the marginal increase in productivity of some major farm produce. According to the agriculture ministry data, the yield of major agricultural produce has shown an increasing trend in the last three years, except for oilseeds. The per hectare yield of wheat during the last three years has gone up from 2,602 kg/ha in 2004-05 to 2,671 kg/ha in 2006-07. Paddy has put in the most impressive show alongside sugarcane — productivity zoomed up from 1,652 kg/ha in 2004-05 to 1,716 kg/ha in 2005-06 and to 3,191 kg/ha in 2006-07. In 2005-06, all-India average productivity was pegged at 3.14 t/ha and the figure for Orissa was 2.27 t/ha whereas the figure for MP was only 1.50 t/ha. The discrepancy between the two key staples has down pegged the foodgrain yield to 1,750 kg/ha in 2006-07 compared to 1,716 kg/ha in 2005-06 and 1,652 kg/ha in 2004-05.
The current yields continue to be light years behind China’s and, in case of paddy, below even the yield in Pakistan. China’s wheat yield is at 3,832 kg/ha and its paddy yield is at 6,350 kg/ha. Pakistan’s is at 2,333 kg/ha and 3,000 kg/ha, respectively, for wheat and paddy. Bangladesh’s paddy yield is pegged at 3,586 kg/ha compared to the world average of 3,912 kg/ha.
These figures reflect advanced technological intervention in China or the rest of the world as compared to India. The situation is not too different in the case of biotech or the increased use of GenX food crop hybrids.
The current yield could be misleading in other ways, too — 2002-03 and 2004-05 witnessed a marked decline in production mainly due to drought conditions and aberrant weather. Stagnation in yield per ha over the last decade-and-half compared real figures to a projected upper threshold limit in output per ha and yield in other countries and not just against the previous years’ domestic yield.
Wheat production in 2005-06 was affected due to an abnormal rise in temperature in February-March. But wheat figures appear good in 2005-06 compared to a lower production base in 2004-05, hiding the lack of consistently increasing annual growth percentage. Fall in foodgrain production and the inability of the farm sector to push the limits of yield impacted adversely on the per person availability of foodgrain. Per capita availability in 2006 (provisional) was 162.3 kg/year compared to 186.2 kg/year in 1991.
Yield growth in sugarcane is higher thanks to the adoption of new farming practices and technology. That is apparent in paddy, too, to an extent thanks to the concerted state efforts to boost production and make up for wheat shortage of late. Paddy productivity could go up in South and East where the government procurement is limited. In comparison, wheat is heavily procured in the North, leading to nothing better than FAQ and stagnant productivity. Only this year, the government has coined a plan to increase the acreage under superior quality durum.
Acreage under pulses went up to 231 lakh ha in 2006-07 while that under oilseeds fell by 18 lakh ha to 260 lakh ha in the same year. On a sustained basis, this can spell heavier reliance on imports, no matter how high the global price. Pulse production rose to 13.11 mt in 2005-06 compared to 9.94 mt in 1965-66.
Despite concerted efforts, no major breakthrough in pulse production technology and variety improvement has been possible due to inherent genetic problems and narrow adaptability of the evolved varieties of pulses. Pulses continue to grow mainly on marginal and sub-marginal land under rainfed conditions (85%) by poor small and marginal farmers.
Food security could be jeopardised by relying solely on imports for a population as big as ours. With a debilitated extension network and the inability of SAUs and KVKs to access up-to-date technology and farm practice knowledge, much would still depend on the vagaries of the rain gods. To avoid a 25mt foodgrain shortfall by 2011, policies to incentivise higher output should be given a new thrust.
Here is an indicative list of the required policy mix: deficiency payments in the form of weather insurance, derivatives, etc; decentralised procurement for the targeted PDS; imports to cover short supply; export incentivisation; optimal and effective use of wasteland to mend for the shrinking cultivable land; balanced use of pesticides, fertilisers and soil nutrients; use of new farming technologies like GenX hybrids and latest irrigation techniques.
A liberalised market (read a thriving and mature forward market for commodities), free movement of farm produce and labour, and minimal government intervention are imperative. A focused plan of action can be spelt out in the form a new policy.
One development that went unnoticed this week was the marginal increase in productivity of some major farm produce. According to the agriculture ministry data, the yield of major agricultural produce has shown an increasing trend in the last three years, except for oilseeds. The per hectare yield of wheat during the last three years has gone up from 2,602 kg/ha in 2004-05 to 2,671 kg/ha in 2006-07. Paddy has put in the most impressive show alongside sugarcane — productivity zoomed up from 1,652 kg/ha in 2004-05 to 1,716 kg/ha in 2005-06 and to 3,191 kg/ha in 2006-07. In 2005-06, all-India average productivity was pegged at 3.14 t/ha and the figure for Orissa was 2.27 t/ha whereas the figure for MP was only 1.50 t/ha. The discrepancy between the two key staples has down pegged the foodgrain yield to 1,750 kg/ha in 2006-07 compared to 1,716 kg/ha in 2005-06 and 1,652 kg/ha in 2004-05.
The current yields continue to be light years behind China’s and, in case of paddy, below even the yield in Pakistan. China’s wheat yield is at 3,832 kg/ha and its paddy yield is at 6,350 kg/ha. Pakistan’s is at 2,333 kg/ha and 3,000 kg/ha, respectively, for wheat and paddy. Bangladesh’s paddy yield is pegged at 3,586 kg/ha compared to the world average of 3,912 kg/ha.
These figures reflect advanced technological intervention in China or the rest of the world as compared to India. The situation is not too different in the case of biotech or the increased use of GenX food crop hybrids.
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Foodgrain production for 2006-07 is estimated at 216.13 mt (the highest production level so far, with earlier peaks touching 213.19 mt (2003-04) and 212.85 mt (2001-02)). The target for 2007-08 is pegged at 221.50 mt compared to a desired production of 240 mt. Projections of production and desired output in 2010-11 are pegged at 229 mt and 256 mt, respectively, based on the current pace of population and consumption growth. The current yield could be misleading in other ways, too — 2002-03 and 2004-05 witnessed a marked decline in production mainly due to drought conditions and aberrant weather. Stagnation in yield per ha over the last decade-and-half compared real figures to a projected upper threshold limit in output per ha and yield in other countries and not just against the previous years’ domestic yield.
Wheat production in 2005-06 was affected due to an abnormal rise in temperature in February-March. But wheat figures appear good in 2005-06 compared to a lower production base in 2004-05, hiding the lack of consistently increasing annual growth percentage. Fall in foodgrain production and the inability of the farm sector to push the limits of yield impacted adversely on the per person availability of foodgrain. Per capita availability in 2006 (provisional) was 162.3 kg/year compared to 186.2 kg/year in 1991.
Yield growth in sugarcane is higher thanks to the adoption of new farming practices and technology. That is apparent in paddy, too, to an extent thanks to the concerted state efforts to boost production and make up for wheat shortage of late. Paddy productivity could go up in South and East where the government procurement is limited. In comparison, wheat is heavily procured in the North, leading to nothing better than FAQ and stagnant productivity. Only this year, the government has coined a plan to increase the acreage under superior quality durum.
Acreage under pulses went up to 231 lakh ha in 2006-07 while that under oilseeds fell by 18 lakh ha to 260 lakh ha in the same year. On a sustained basis, this can spell heavier reliance on imports, no matter how high the global price. Pulse production rose to 13.11 mt in 2005-06 compared to 9.94 mt in 1965-66.
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Despite concerted efforts, no major breakthrough in pulse production technology and variety improvement has been possible due to inherent genetic problems and narrow adaptability of the evolved varieties of pulses. Pulses continue to grow mainly on marginal and sub-marginal land under rainfed conditions (85%) by poor small and marginal farmers.
Food security could be jeopardised by relying solely on imports for a population as big as ours. With a debilitated extension network and the inability of SAUs and KVKs to access up-to-date technology and farm practice knowledge, much would still depend on the vagaries of the rain gods. To avoid a 25mt foodgrain shortfall by 2011, policies to incentivise higher output should be given a new thrust.
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