Economic Survey 2015: New GDP methodology 'puzzling', shows growth in bad year, says Arvind Subramanian

"The balance of evidence shows that India is still a recovering economy not a surging economy," the Chief Economic Adviser added.

Economic Survey 2015: New GDP methodology 'puzzling', shows growth in bad year, says Arvind Subramanian
NEW DELHI: Government's new GDP methodology is "puzzling" for none other than Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, who today said the new numbers show growth to have accelerated during 2013-14 despite that being a "kind of bad year".

"I am puzzled as I said because the fact that...especially what happened in 2013-14, that number is puzzling because that is a kind of bad year, yet growth accelerated," Subramanian said.

He was replying to a query on he thinks there is a case to revisit the new methodology for measuring Gross Domestic Product( GDP).

"The balance of evidence shows that India is still a recovering economy not a surging economy," the Chief Economic Adviser added.

Subramanian, however, said that everybody needs to reflect on the numbers to understand why they are and what they are but meanwhile they have to use that number.

A change in base year for computing national accounts last month has pushed up the economic growth rate for 2013-14 to 6.9 per cent. The earlier estimate of GDP growth for India for 2013-14 based on the basis of old series was 4.7 per cent.
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These changes follow a revision in the base for calculating national accounts to 2011-12 from 2004-05.

The base year was last revised in January 2010. The CEA, however, added that the improvement in data and methods put India on par with international standards of GDP estimation.

The new methodology has made India the world's fastest-growing big economy.
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8 Things Budget 2015 could do – Cues from FM Arun Jaitley
1/9
Text: ET Bureau

ET looks at the recent speeches of finance minister Arun Jaitley for clues to the budget for FY16. The budget is widely expected to lay down the agenda for the remaining four years of the Narendra Modi government.

In Pic: Jaitley arrives at the Pre-Budget Consultation with the representatives of Trade Union, in New Delhi.
Text: ET Bureau

ET looks at the recent speeches of finance minister Arun Jaitley for clues to the budget for FY16. The budget is widely expected to lay down the agenda for the remaining..
Read More
Target 4.1% of GDP is expected to be met. The fiscal deficit touched 99% of the budget estimate at the end of Nov.

“Even though the revenues have been challenging due to low manufacturing, now it is turning around & it looks like we will be."

- at a customs function in New Delhi on January 27

In Pic: Jaitley speaks at an event organised by the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) on International Customs Day 2015, in New Delhi on January 27.
Target 4.1% of GDP is expected to be met. The fiscal deficit touched 99% of the budget estimate at the end of Nov.

“Even though the revenues have been challenging due to low manufacturing, now..
Read More
There is a small chance that this could be rolled back, given that it continues to worry investors. If not rolled back, there could be more assurances that its provisions would not be invoked.

“Stability of policy is important...which is why retrospective taxation, because of absence of stability of policy, became a defining moment against India globally.”

- at the ETNow India Economic Conclave on December 8

In Pic: Jaitley at the India Economic Conclave in New Delhi on December 6, 2014.
There is a small chance that this could be rolled back, given that it continues to worry investors. If not rolled back, there could be more assurances that its provisions would not be invoked.
Read More
The under recovery on cooking gas was Rs 46,458 cr in 2013-14. The government could deny subsidy benefit to some sections – for instance, taxpayers in the highest bracket.

“We have given enough indication—some sections which don’t need the LPG subsidy will have to forgo that.”

- at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit on Jan 11
The under recovery on cooking gas was Rs 46,458 cr in 2013-14. The government could deny subsidy benefit to some sections – for instance, taxpayers in the highest bracket.

“We have given enoug..
Read More
The govt is keen to make domestic manufacturing cost competitive. A short-term solution would be to offer tax incentives while the entire ecosystem is improved.

“So unless our taxation regime is internationally compatible, the cost of our product is going to be more…So am I going to provide them with a tax regime which is compatible to what they get across the world”

- at the government’s Make in India programme in December

In Pic: Jaitley addressing at the National Workshop on 'Make in India'.
The govt is keen to make domestic manufacturing cost competitive. A short-term solution would be to offer tax incentives while the entire ecosystem is improved.

“So unless our taxation regime ..
Read More
Fiscal consolidation has to continue. The govt needs resources to step up public spending.

““For any finance minister to withdraw this tax or withdraw that tax is not so easily possible” until the govt is in a position to balance its accounts.”

- at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan 22, when asked if the minimum alternate tax could be lowered or removed

In Pic: Arun Jaitley, Chanda Kochhar and Hari S. Bhartia during a session at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Fiscal consolidation has to continue. The govt needs resources to step up public spending.

““For any finance minister to withdraw this tax or withdraw that tax is not so easily possible” until..
Read More
NRI investments through FDI in India since April 2000 stood at $4.7billion, or 1.98% of the total. The govt could provide an easier regime that puts NRI investment on par with domestic investment.

“Suggestion with regard to attracting more NRI investment is an issue which is actively under consideration.”

- at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 22

In Pic: Arun Jaitley during the session 'The BRICS Agenda' at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
NRI investments through FDI in India since April 2000 stood at $4.7billion, or 1.98% of the total. The govt could provide an easier regime that puts NRI investment on par with domestic investment.Read More
Chief economic advisor has called for greater public spending to revive investments. Idea has found greater support since then.

“A lot more endeavour by the govt in making our manufactu- ring more competitive, investment also including public investment in infrastructure.”

- at the Economic Times Global Business Summit on January 16

In Pic: Jaitley speaks at the Economic Times' Global Business Summit in New Delhi.
Chief economic advisor has called for greater public spending to revive investments. Idea has found greater support since then.

“A lot more endeavour by the govt in making our manufactu- ring ..
Read More
Inverted duty refers to the taxation of inputs at higher rates than finished products. This discourages domestic manufacturing.

“We are correcting the inverted duty structure, which can hurt certain sections of the industry.”

- at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 22

In Pic: Jaitley gestures as he speaks during the session 'India's Next Decade' at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the World Economic Forum at the congress centre in Davos.
Inverted duty refers to the taxation of inputs at higher rates than finished products. This discourages domestic manufacturing.

“We are correcting the inverted duty structure, which can hurt c..
Read More
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