Delay in climate policy would triple short-term mitigation costs: Study

NEW DELHI: Delaying action to tackle climate change raises the cost of reducing emissions and makes it tougher to garner political will and public support for the purpose, a study has shown.

In the study, published on Tuesday in Envrionmental Research Letters, scientists from Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, University of Melbourne, Technische Universitat Berlin, and the Mercator Research Institute warn that delaying climate policy would triple shortterm mitigation costs.

“The transitional economic repercussions that would result if the switch towards a climate-friendly economy is delayed, are comparable to the costs of the financial crisis the world just experienced,” said lead author of the study Gunnar Luderer of Potsdam Institute.

The study, Economic Mitigation Challenges: How Further Delay Closes the Door for Achieving Climate Targets, states that countries must begin to comprehensively reduce emissions if the target of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees is to be met. It is not comprehensive emission reduction policy alone that is required. The availability of low-emission technologies is the other crucial factor that affects costs and decision on climate policy.

The scientists peg a 7% reduction in global economic growth if countries delay adopting a climate regime that comprehensively reduces emissions and full availability of technology till 2030. On the other hand, a global agreement on an effective climate regime by 2015 could limit reduction in economic growth to 2%.

Delaying emission reduction would mean a shorter time span to achieve the he internationally agreed target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This would make emission reduction efforts more expensive.

“Our study quantifies the shortterm costs of tiptoeing when confronted with the climate challenge. Economists tend to look at how things balance out in the long-term, but decision-makers understandably worry about additional burdens for the people and businesses they are responsible for right now. So increased short-term costs due to delaying climate policy might deter decisionmakers from starting the transformation. The initial costs of climate policies thus can be more relevant than the total costs,” Luderer said.

The study analyses a number of cost dimensions, including climate policy effects on energy prices.