Corporate filings, annual survey to show clear pic on India’s GDP: Edelweiss Securities

MUMBAI: Edelweiss Securities in its report said the Real Gross Value Added for third quarter 2017 came in higher than expected at 6.6% compared to 6.7% growth in Q2FY17, suggesting little or no impact of demonetisation on the aggregate economic activity. It said government services and agriculture were extremely robust at 12% and 6% YoY, respectively.

It said private sector real activity slowed down led by the sharp slowdown in financial/real estate services and some moderation in construction.

“What is particularly striking in today’s data is the sharp pick up in manufacturing sector and steep acceleration seen in real private consumption. This is surprising because several high frequency indicators, such as, FMCG sales, car sales, two-wheeler sales, and credit growth slowed during the quarter. Perhaps, manufacturing strength could be due to inventory build-up,” the report said.


The demonetisation impact has certainly been less than expected, according to the report.

However, outside agri and government services, there was a slowdown in activities, it added. The full picture would be clear only when extensive data from corporate filings and Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) becomes available it concluded.

For FY17 the brokerage reiterated its GVA growth of 6.5% as it feels government expenditure may slow down.