Budget 2025: Fraught juggling act draws near for Nirmala Sitharaman. What will Feb 1 bring?

Budget 2025 will have its task cut out as the onset of Trump's reign has not only accentuated global trade faultlines but also unsettled Indian policymaking. In the wake of deepening uncertainty arising out of Trump's unpredictability as well as India's unexpectedly cooling growth trends, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have her hands full this year.

As the FM tries to juggle between domestic economic compulsions and changing trade dynamics, February 1 will likely be a fraught job with no room for half measures. So, what kind of measures will Budget 2025 bring? Looking for hints, ET.com ran a survey featuring a number of indicative questions on a host of issues that the Indian economy currently faces. Here follows a detailed account of what all we found.

The biggest factor holding India back in terms of economic growth at the moment is the lack of focus on job generation, 31.4% of survey respondents said. Over a fourth (25.4%) blamed it on the current inflation management policies. 21.9% of those surveyed picked the lag in private investment as the biggest drag, while 21.2% chose the policy paralysis option.

The issue of unemployment again came up as the top pick (54.8% backers) in a related question on the biggest challenges being faced by India at present, while over a fourth (26.1%) ticked on the inequality option.

What can Budget 2025 do to address India's unemployment problem? A high 58.4% of respondents said they would like the Finance Minister to incentivise private job creators through the budget. According to a substantial chunk of respondents (well over 28%), setting up more small businesses could go a long way in addressing the issue of joblessness.

An overwhelming majority of respondents didn't beat about the bush on the question that asked how to bring India back on to the high growth path, with as many as 64% of them saying the govt needed to boost consumption via a tax cut. Agriculture reform was the option of choice for under 10% people, while over 14% thought the govt needed to incentivise private investment.

In recent times, lagging private investment has been a recurring hot topic in India's govt corridors and policy parlours. So, why is the private sector not investing as much as it should? 31.6% of readers said it was because India's growth and demand are not promising enough. According to 29.3% participants, it was because India's labour laws are rigid and policies unfavourable, while 28.8% saw monetary policy as too tight for the private sector to invest freely.

While most taxpayers are looking forward to hear some good news on the tax front in the budget, the big change a significant majority of ET Survey participants want this year is a "slab widening and reduction in % applied on them", while 13% of respondents want the Finance Minister to introduce "80C type exemptions in New Tax Regime". Two other options in the questions -- higher standard deduction and a special tax on the rich -- didn't get many backers, garnering 6.9% and 7.6% backing, respectively.

As for sectoral focus, over 43% of respondents said it is the matter of jobs that needs the highest budgetary focus this year. Well over 28% of those surveyed said they would like the budget to focus most on infrastructure.

The perennial lack of focus on the middle class is the big trick India is missing that this budget could address, over 65% of our survey participants said. Well over 17% of respondents said it was the issue of the misdirected subsidy regime that needed to be addressed most urgently. For 13.6% of people, failure to invest properly in education came up as the one big factor.

At a time when the issue of trade fears stoked by the US' regime change has dominated policy discussions everywhere, Trump's threats didn't resonate much with many of our survey participants. Just over 7% of respondents saw "nearshoring and trade tariffs" as a big risk factor for India at present. The wider option of "global uncertainty", however, drew 29.9% votes. A big majority, well over half of the respondents, still thought that jobs -- or rather the continuing jobless growth -- were the one big factor India needed to be wary of.

In the event of Trump coming good on his threat and actually raising tariffs, ET survey participants backed two starkly different strategies for India in almost equal numbers. While just under 41% of them said India should cut tariffs and accommodate Trump, well over 39% thought India should respond in kind and impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Only a small chunk of participants backed a pacifist approach, saying that India should grin and bear it if Trump raises tariffs. Interestingly, 12% of our respondents thought that India should counter Trump's tantrums by making a foe a friend -- by cosying up to its neighbouring giant, bitter rival, China.