Budget 2012 for wobbling centre this parliament session

Beginning today, the political centre of gravity will shift to Parliament, where the freshly chastened Congress party will go into the three-month long Budget Session amid growing opposition within the ruling coalition as much as from outside.


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The debacle in recent assembly polls will propel Congress towards compromise as a formula for survival, especially since the so-called federal front of non-Congress chief ministers has already sounded the war cry for early general elections. None of this augurs well for economic reforms, or legislation per se for that matter.

Here’s a look at how the odds are stacked up against the party that leads the UPA at the Centre:

Trinamool Congress: The Oppn Within

Mamata Banerjee is out to needle the Centre and convey that she relates better with non-Congress CMs. Congress may have little choice but to play along and appease her. The lack of emotional connects between her and Cong may lead her to even deny a Rajya Sabha seat to her alliance partner. Her party was quick to join the chorus for early LS polls, before moderating its stance.

Nationalist Congress Party: Voice of Dissent

The Sharad Pawar-led party was unhappy with the Centre’s ban on cotton exports. Post-assembly polls, it can voice its unhappiness louder and clearer at not being kept in loop on such issues by the party that leads the coalition. Congress has suddenly become a softer target.

National Conference: Numbers of Restraint

Despite a propensity for politically opportunistic statements, the Srinagarbased party remains numerically insignificant to impact Congress. Besides, it cannot afford to burn bridges with the Centre.

Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam: Weak Party Means Good Ally

Though not certain to always vote with Congress, the Tamil Nadubased party will remain in check simply because it needs Congress at least as much as Congress needs it. Ever since it was rendered toothless following its defeat in the state polls, it has lost its bite, even as it may be inclined to support other regional parties on federal issues.

National Democratic Alliance: Anti-Cong is Good News

The BJP-led alliance can only revel in the discomfiture facing Congress. Expect it to stoke federal fires so long as they singe only Congress. Even if it may not stand to gain from the gathering storm, the weakening Congress can only prove beneficial to it in the next general elections.

Samajwadi Party: Rallying Force

Mulayam Singh Yadav has invited all non-Congress, non-BJP chief ministers to the swearing-in of his son Akhilesh in Lucknow. Expect more muscle flexing from the party that has won the state polls. It can only gain from early Lok Sabha polls. This propels it into the role of a rallying force against Congress at the Centre. More parties are sure to join as the campaign gathers momentum.