A quiet confidence: How India’s Budget steadies the economy in a turbulent world

Budget 2026: In a world where certainty is increasingly scarce, economies are learning to steady themselves amid shifting terrain. Tariff flare-ups, geopolitical rifts and supply-chain resets shape conversations from Frankfurt boardrooms to Bengaluru technology centres. Yet, as India unveiled the budget, what stood out was a quiet confidence. Not because global turbulence has faded, but because India has become more deliberate, more grounded and more prepared to navigate it.

Over the past year, I've heard this shift articulated in different ways - an entrepreneur in Pune speaking of resilience before scale, an investor in Europe noting India's growing predictability, a CIO in Bengaluru observing how uncertainty is now met with clarity rather than hesitation. This budget mirrors that sentiment: steady in tone, purposeful in direction, and anchored in long-term thinking.

India's economic foundations remain firm. Growth of 7-7.5% is expected, supported by resilient consumption, infrastructure investment and healthy deal flow. But what inspires confidence is the discipline beneath the numbers. A fiscal deficit easing from 4.4% to 4.3%, and a glide path to bring central debt down to 50% of GDP by FY31, signal macro credibility at a time when fiscal prudence is a global differentiator. The Centre's commitment is clear, though some states' rising debt and uneven spending remind us that the broader fiscal landscape still needs attention.


Reforms continue to strengthen ease of doing business. Simplifying merger and demerger rules, aligning capital gains structures and clarifying MAT and international tax norms reduce friction for corporates and global investors alike. A relook at FEMA NDI rules and the restructuring of PFC and REC, both influential in onshore and offshore bond markets, could reshape how capital moves through the economy. These steps matter because predictable regulation remains one of the strongest signals a country can send to foreign investors.

India's push to deepen the corporate bond market marks another important step. A clearer market-making framework, wider access to funds and new instruments such as bond-index derivatives and total-return swaps signal readiness for a more liquid and globally aligned fixed-income ecosystem-broadening financing avenues for corporates and expanding participation for global institutions.

The author is CEO, Deutsche Bank Group India and Emerging Asia