Withdrawal of monsoon delayed, spells relief for farmers

NEW DELHI: The withdrawal of the monsoon, which should normally begin by September 1 from west Rajasthan, is delayed this year, cheering farmers with rain that’s been patchy during the season.

Meteorologists said the retreat was unlikely to begin over the next week with rains to occur in the north and northwest region of the country during the period. The four-month monsoon season, which runs from June to September, brings 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.

Over the past few years, the withdrawal has commenced in mid-September. "Since the past few years the withdrawal of monsoon from extreme north western parts of the country has been delayed. In the next one-two days, rains will continue in the region and we have to see the situation," said DS Pai, head of the longrange forecasting division at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Pai said the rains will give temporary relief to farmers in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. Last year, the monsoon started withdrawing from Rajasthan from September 9 and from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat by September 19.

Meteorologists have said the monsoon is likely to end with deficit rainfall. In the past several years, the monsoon has started withdrawing only in the last week of September.

In the past eight years, it has lingered on in northern India until as late as September 29 (in 2008). A week’s delay in the retreat was normal, said GP Sharma, vice president of meteorology at private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services.

"Prevalence of dry weather for continuous five days and reduction in moisture content will be considered before announcing the withdrawal of monsoon," he said. The third condition for the retreat of monsoon is the setting of anti-cyclonic circulation over western Rajasthan in the low troposphere (at a height of 1.5 km).

The complete withdrawal of the monsoon from the country takes place after October 1. The southwest monsoon made landfall on June 6 and extended over the country by July 17. Agriculturists said the late retreat was not a cause for worry as the rain would help paddy, cotton and coarse cereals.

According to the Met department’s forecast until September 10, rainfall will occur at many places along the west coast and northwest India. On Wednesday, the seasonal deficit of the season narrowed to 15% with heavy showers covering most parts of the country.

So far, the rainfall deficit has ranged between 5% and 13% in the southern, eastern and central parts of the country, while in the north and northwest the shortfall was 33%. In Punjab and Haryana, the seasonal deficit was at 64%, followed by 58% in west Uttar Pradesh.

The Marathwada region and Telangana had a seasonal deficit of 37%. India receives an average 890 mm rainfall during the June-September period that is pivotal for the country's rural economy.

Monsoon rain is vital for India as 55% of the arable land depends entirely on rain for irrigation. While agriculture accounts for only about 15% of the economy, the monsoon has a wider impact because it affects millions of people in villages, and weak rainfall can raise food prices.