Weather forecast to turn a lot smarter
The government has proposed to hire scientists, including overseas experts, to modernise India’s weather and climate forecast services.
By Neha Kohli, TNN |
NEW DELHI: The government has proposed to hire scientists, including overseas experts, to modernise India’s weather and climate forecast services. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been advised to tap Indian experts abroad who could lend a helping hand. Scientists will help evaluating IMD’s data and forecasting methodologies. They would also suggest ways to modernise India’s monsoon forecasting system, government sources said.
The IMD, they said, had been using a flawed statistical model that used 16 predictors for many years for long-term forecasts. After much criticism by the international community and failed forecasts, it’s now adopting an “equally flawed 8-10 predictor model”. So far, the IMD does not share either the data or the methodology to arrive at its forecast system with scientists. This leaves the science fraternity with no method to validate or verify the model.
Even the Indian satellite data, which is collected at a huge cost, is analysed by the IMD, but the same has not been made available to Indian scientists for research. Experts say the latest techniques of observing, modelling and prediction of weather are readily available and it is possible to establish a state-of-the-art weather prediction system within 2-3 years.
It’s understood that top government officials have endorsed prominent scientist of Indian origin, J Shukla’s proposal to develop world-class weather and climate prediction models that will provide forecasts not only for the country as a whole but for each district and perhaps, even for smaller areas for short periods. “This will be particularly useful in agriculture,” a senior official observed. Prof Shukla’s proposal will involve 200 highly-trained and well-qualified technical and scientific staff.
The IMD, they said, had been using a flawed statistical model that used 16 predictors for many years for long-term forecasts. After much criticism by the international community and failed forecasts, it’s now adopting an “equally flawed 8-10 predictor model”. So far, the IMD does not share either the data or the methodology to arrive at its forecast system with scientists. This leaves the science fraternity with no method to validate or verify the model.
Even the Indian satellite data, which is collected at a huge cost, is analysed by the IMD, but the same has not been made available to Indian scientists for research. Experts say the latest techniques of observing, modelling and prediction of weather are readily available and it is possible to establish a state-of-the-art weather prediction system within 2-3 years.
It’s understood that top government officials have endorsed prominent scientist of Indian origin, J Shukla’s proposal to develop world-class weather and climate prediction models that will provide forecasts not only for the country as a whole but for each district and perhaps, even for smaller areas for short periods. “This will be particularly useful in agriculture,” a senior official observed. Prof Shukla’s proposal will involve 200 highly-trained and well-qualified technical and scientific staff.
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