We have got a bad patch ahead: Ajay Srivastava, Dimensions Consulting

Ajay Srivastava, Dimensions Consulting Pvt. Ltd., in a chat with ET Now, gives his views on inflation


Are the fundamentals getting back in place? Are interest rates near peaking out now and will inflation get back to single digits?

I have a funny feeling that the data we get from the CSO is all kind of numbers, is not necessarily correct. I will give an example. You saw one month back, data was 85% increase in exports. We went around companies looking for one, which had even 40% growth rate and we could not find a single one. So I am not sure the data is right, that’s one. No. 2 fundamentally we will see deterioration. The rating agencies have been behind the curve in downgrading the banks, in downgrading the country by and large because we will see more downgrading happening. Fundamentally we will hit a trough, maybe around the first quarter of the next year as the budget approaches. Whether stock market works or does not work is a different story because I will tell you on Friday, in America a lot of ETFs went into operation because at the end of the day, they have to rebalance the portfolios. India flows as we understand is also a lot of ETF driven. Indians are substantially underinvested, so we have a demand-supply issue. We have a fundamental issue, sometimes one win, sometimes the other. Fundamentally we still got a very bad patch ahead. Demand-supply wise, demand is tremendous for Indian equities, locally at least.