South India likely to get normal to excess rain: Weather Risk Management

HYDERABAD: Weather Risk Management Services has said south India is likely to get normal to excess rain this monsoon, a forecast that could ease concerns in a region where agriculture has suffered due to back-to-back droughts.

The forecast for north India, however, is not as promising. The region, which received normal rains last year, could see deficient rainfall this time, the climate risk management and weather forecasting agency said on Friday.

“Southern portions of the country are expected to receive normal to excess rainfall in both southwest and north-east monsoons this fiscal,” said Kranti Prasad, senior consultant, climate sciences, Weather Risk Management Services. He, however, added that south India could experience deficient rainfall in October but would receive normal to excess rains during November.

Prasad said the forecast factors in fears of El Nino. “Large parts of north India, particularly north-west India, may experience a deficiency in overall precipitation due to 60-70 per cent chances of El Nino, a weather condition associated with the rise in ocean temperature, causing draughts in several regions of the world, and appearing during the height of the Indian monsoon season—the July-August period.” In its overall forecast for the nation, the agency has said that monsoon 2017 may end up on a moderately negative side of the normal.

The IMD has maintained its projection of 96% rainfall with a variation of (+/-) 5 per cent of the long-term average.