RBI raises GDP growth estimate for FY26, upgrades early FY27 outlook

India’s central bank on Friday raised its real GDP growth projection for 2025-26 to 7.4%, signalling confidence in the durability of domestic demand even as global trade uncertainties and financial market volatility cloud the external outlook, as it held interest rates steady. The revised forecast marks a modest upgrade from the 7.3% growth estimate announced in December, reinforcing the Reserve Bank of India’s view that Asia’s third-largest economy remains relatively insulated from global headwinds. The RBI also revised upward its early outlook for 2026-27, projecting real GDP growth of 6.9% in the first quarter and 7.0% in the second, compared with its earlier estimates of 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively. The central bank said economic activity is expected to hold up well into the next financial year, supported by sustained momentum in consumption and investment.