RBI minutes signal firmer growth path, muted price pressures after February hold

India’s growth outlook has brightened while inflation remains benign, giving policymakers room to stay patient, minutes of the February 4–6 meeting of the Reserve Bank showed, as its rate-setting panel stood pat on monetary policy and kept a neutral stance while awaiting clearer data and fuller transmission of past easing.

The committee, chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, said economic momentum remains resilient despite global volatility, with FY26 growth estimated at 7.4% and projections for the first half of FY27 nudged up to about 6.9–7.0%, helped by strong domestic demand, investment activity, and recent trade deals expected to lift exports and capital inflows.

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Inflation, meanwhile, has stayed unusually soft, with headline CPI at 0.7% in November and 1.3% in December and projected at 2.1% for FY26, though it may edge toward the 4% target in early FY27 due largely to base effects and higher precious-metal prices rather than broad demand pressures. Members said underlying inflation excluding such volatile components remains muted, suggesting little risk of overheating.