Private forecaster Skymet expects normal monsoon this year

NEW DELHI: Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted normal monsoon rains from June to September, joining a series of international meteorologists that have made a similar assessment. Skymet expects a few dry patches in parts of eastern and central India but on the whole it is optimistic.

The official forecast from the India Meteorological Department ( IMD) is expected in a week, but several international agencies as well as private forecasters have already issued their prediction.

Most of them expect normal rainfall but a few say that erratic rainfall cannot be ruled out. No agency, including the IMD, has been consistently accurate in its forecast and nobody had forecast the devastating drought of 2009.

“The monsoon might be 103% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm for the four month period,” said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet Weather Services. Skymet will issue a monthly report on wea-ther forecast to cater to its wide-ranged clients from Tata Power, Reliance Infra, The World Bank , ICICI Lombard and others.

“As the volume of rainfall in the first two months look normal, the onset and progress should be timely. It means that by June 1 monsoon should hit Kerala, by June 7 Mumbai and by June 29 Delhi as per our current calculations,” he said. Central India is expected to have the least fluctuation with normal rainfall through June, July, August and September.

However, the report says that there seems to be weakness in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and northern Madhya Pradesh in June and July and in Peninsular India in August.

India received 92% of the 50-year average of about 89 centimeters of rain in the June-September monsoon season in 2012, creating drought-like conditions in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka.

With nearly two-thirds of Indian agriculture is dependent on rain, a good monsoon is the lifeline for Indian farmers and food security of the country. A normal monsoon would ensure timely sowing of cotton, paddy, soya bean, and pulses across the country.

“The sugarcane crop will be normal. However, there might be a slight dip in precipitation in August,” said Jatin. The slight weakness in the latter part of the monsoon could be attributed to an evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is a phenomenon wherein the East Indian Oceans (waters near Indonesia) warms or cools, in turn affecting the monsoon.

Jatin is of the opinion that power markets this year should not get stressed as a good chance of timely onset will reduce agriculture load. Further, there is a likelihood of higher hydel power availability, he added.