NCAER revises GDP growth lower at 8%

NEW DELHI: National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has downgraded its GDP forecast to 7.8% for 2008-09, against the earlier projection of a 9%, apprehending that global slowdown and rise in inflation might have an adverse impact on the Indian economy.

���The diminished growth (estimate) is on account of slower global growth and higher rate of inflation,��� NCAER said in its quarterly review of the economy. The economic think-tank also pegged the wholesale index-based inflation rate at an average of 7.9% for 2008-09. The agriculture sector is projected to grow at 2.5%, industry at 8.4% and services sector by 9.1% during the current fiscal, it said.

NCAER has also projected a slowdown in growth of exports to 15.8% in 2008-09 from 23% the previous fiscal. Imports are likely to come down to 23% from 27% in the last fiscal.

Referring to high inflation, the council said that a large part of this inflation is due to global factors. ���Policy measures should be to minimise the impact on the vulnerable sections of the population and improve the supply conditions to minimise the price impact for the economy as a whole,��� the council recommended.