Monsoon still weak; expected to gain strength in July

NEW DELHI: The weather office predicts monsoon showers in northern India in a few days, calming concerns of farmers after a parched June, but suspense over erratic rains continues as Western forecasters are not as optimistic about the progress of the monsoon that unexpectedly stopped midway in its journey from Kerala to Kashmir two weeks ago.

Rainfall has been 42% below normal this month, and in the key cropping regions in central, northern and western India, the shortfall has been more than 50%.

An exceptionally dry June, at levels last seen in 2009 and 1926, has delayed planting of rice, oilseeds and pulses, and raised anxiety about output and inflation. The India Meteorological Department promises quick relief.

"Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir during next 3-4 days," it said in its latest report on Sunday.



However, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service expects weak monsoon rains in its prediction up to July 8, which is at the outer limit of the period in which the kharif crop output can be salvaged. Apart from the IMD, private forecasters and meteorologists in Pakistan also promise better and wetter weather in a week.

Good rainfall in July is critical, also likely, after an exceptionally dry June. Forecasters say chances of a dry July after a parched June are remote. Statistically, whenever June rainfall has been more than 40% in deficit – in 1905, 1923, 1926 and during the drought five years ago — precipitation in July has been significantly better.

But US forecasters predict a dry beginning for the month in India. US forecasters say below-normal rains would continue across the country. "Enhanced convection associated with monsoonal flow is favoured to continue over parts of Southeast Asia, although some measurements of wind speeds over the Horn of Africa indicate the potential for a relaxation in the South Asian monsoon. Therefore, below-average rains are likely to continue across India," the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its two-week forecast.

For the week up to July 8, it said: "A below aver-age monsoon is likely to persist into week two over India and Bangladesh." IMD and the met office in Pakistan expect the monsoon to revive in the first week of July after falling short by 42% so far in the month of June.

Barely 9% of the country received normal rainfall this season. Indian officials are anxiously waiting for the monsoon to resume its advance after stagnating since June 15, when it reached southern Gujarat and the eastern fringes of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

The country saw a comparably dry June five years ago but rainfall had risen to nearly normal in the following month although 2009 was a drought year, as the monsoon faltered again in August and September.

For farmers, each dry day adds significantly to their hardship as crop planting so far is just onethird of what it was last year. Planting is down in most parts of the country. With the exception of Jammu and Kashmir in the north and Tamil Nadu in the south, 80-90% of the annual rainfall over the country occurs mostly during the south-west monsoon season, according to IMD.