Monsoon shortfall may widen further; heavy showers expected in July can provide relief

PUNE/NEW DELHI: India’s monsoon deficit, a worrying 43% in June, can widen further unless there are heavy showers because normal rainfall in the month of July is much higher than June.

However, meteorologists are confident that the monsoon will pick up this month, especially since June was so deficient. Rainfall in early July is critical because farmers cannot wait much longer to plant crops.

So far, planting is already much lower than last year, and if sowing is delayed beyond a point, the crop spills over to the rabi season, affecting output of the winter-sown crop also, experts say.

Among the key crop-growing regions, central India has a shortfall of 61%, while north and northwestern parts of the country are 55% short.


The driest state is Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, where rainfall is 74%-91% below average in various districts. Rainfall deficit in the country has widened steadily from 36% on June 22 to 43% now as each day’s normal rainfall is usually higher than the previous day until early August, after which it starts declining and tapers off at the end of September.

By July 1, the monsoon normally covers most of the country, including Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and most parts of Rajasthan and Punjab. This year, it stopped advancing on June 15, when it touched the southern part of Gujarat and eastern fringes of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

This has sparked fears of rising food prices and a decline in rural prosperity and demand for goods. The weather office says conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance to north India in the next three-four days. This is because of some weather systems developing over the sea.

"A low pressure area is likely to be formed over the Bay of Bengal while an off-shore trough also may develop over the Arabian Sea, which will help the monsoon revive in next three to four days over central India, Uttar Pradesh,Punjab etc. However, the conditions are not favourable for advance of monsoon over Gujarat and Rajasthan yet," said Medha Khole, deputy director general, meteorology (forecast), Indian Meteorology Deparment, Pune.

This year, the monsoon arrived in the Andaman islands on May 18, two days earlier than normal. However, a depression in the Bay of Bengal acted as a hurdle in its further movement toward the mainland.

The monsoon reached Kerala on June 6, late by five days than the normal onset date of June 1. However, all the moisture was attracted toward the Naunak cyclone, which formed in the Arabian Sea in mid-June and moved northwest towards Oman.