Monsoon seen below average: Jitendra Singh, Earth Sciences minister

In a disappointing news, India is expected to receive below normal monsoon rainfall of 93 per cent, according to Met department forecast which predicted a reduction of two per cent from the one made initially.

"The monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole between June and September is likely to be below normal at 93 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus/minus four per cent," Minister of State for Science and Technology Jitendra Singh told reporters here.

In April, the Met Department had predicted a below normal monsoon at 95 per cent.

The less rainfall is being attributed to El-Nino condition, whose chances of occurrence are as high as 70 per cent.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General L S Rathore said the condition is expected to peak around the end of July and early August but as of now, "it is at the threshold of being qualified as a weak El Nino".

The condition is associated with the warming of sea temperature.

Monsoon is crucial for the economy, especially for the agriculture sector which is largely rain-fed.

Secretary Earth Science Shailesh Nayak said the government had already initiated steps when the Met department came out with the initial forecast about below normal rainfall in April.

The Cabinet Secretary has already held meetings with different ministries to tackle any situation, he said.

According to the Met department, rainfall during July is expected to be 93 per cent and during August at 96 per cent.

It is likely to be 85 per cent of the long period average over northwest India, 94 per cent over central India, 93 per cent over southern peninsula and 99 per cent over northeast India with a model error of plus-minus eight per cent.

Naik said the monsoon is expected to arrive in Delhi at its normal date of July 29-30.

While the Monsoon arrived in Kerala five days late, he said there are no links between its late arrival and the advancements in the central part and the northern part of the country.