Monsoon rains slightly above normal in July

NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall was slightly above normal in July after being 4% in excess in the previous month. It is likely to remain positive although it’s expected to be in a lean phase for about 10 days.

Total rainfall received last month was 290.4 mm, which is 0.41% above normal in July. Rainfall received since June 1 over the country has been 2% above normal, with only northwest & Central receiving above normal rainfall.

However, rainfall has been unevenly distributed, with floods in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and very heavy showers in MP. Parts of southern India, particularly Karnataka, have received scanty rain.

Analysts said the outlook for the kharif crop remains good. “I would remain positive on the agricultural output this year despite the floods in certain regions as it may not affect the overall production in the country,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.



After normal rainfall for two months, India Meteorological Department ( IMD) is expecting weak monsoon showers across the country in the first week of August.

“Rainfall activity for this week will be comparatively less than expected due to low intensity weather systems. However, it doesn’t mean that rainfall will completely stop,” said an IMD official. While heavy rainfall is likely over NW and NE India, parts of south peninsula and central India would see subdued rainfall activity, the official added.

“It is a positive sign that overall kharif harvest could be more or less normal. Marginal distortions will always be there.. not just due to floods but also the withdrawal of monsoon which invariably could be leaving later and damaging crops. But core growth in agricultural output should not be affected because of the crops impacted in flood-affected regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan,” Sabnavis said.