Monsoon likely to be above normal for central, western and north-western India: SASCOF-8

PUNE: Central, western and north western parts of India are likely to get above normal rainfall, while most of the remaining parts of the country, barring some exceptions, are set to get normal rainfall, indicated the monsoon forecast issued by South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF). It predicted development of weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which favours good monsoon rainfall, in early part of monsoon season.

The SASCOF-8 predicted above normal monsoon for much of south Asia. "Above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of central and western South Asia. Below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern part of the peninsula. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas," stated the consensus statement issued by SASCOF-8 held at Colombo in Sri Lanka on Tuesday.

The snow-covered area over both Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal during three of the four months since December 2015 (except January, 2016). Below-normal Northern Hemisphere snow cover during winter and spring generally leads to a stronger than normal south Asian summer monsoon. The February and March snow-covered area over the Northern Hemisphere was 3rd and 2nd lowest respectively and that over Eurasia was 4 th and 5 th lowest during the last 50 years.

The statement further added, "Analyses of historical observations indicate that normal to above-normal rainfall occurs in most of South Asia, except in the northeastern part, during the southwest monsoon season after El Niño events, and especially when La Niña develops immediately following El Niño. Furthermore, this impact is stronger over northwestern and central parts of the region."