Monsoon hits Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, chances of heavy rainfall likely

NEW DELHI:The monsoon arrived emphatically on India's southern coast, strengthened by a brewing storm in the Arabian Sea, reducing the anxiety of financial markets and farmers, but authorities are keeping vigil to ensure supplies and are ready to imprison hoarders if the vital weather system stumbles.

Heavy monsoon showers drenched Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The weather office said conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon, a forecast backed by satellite images of vast tracts of clouds over the Bay of Bengal and a brewing storm in the Arabian Sea that has the potential to intensify into a tropical cyclone.

Private forecaster Skymet said the stormy clouds over the Arabian Sea had strengthened the monsoon. The weather monitoring agency for US Navy upgraded the chance of the system of clouds intensifying into a cyclone in 24 hours to 'medium' from 'low', and the Met department said such a development would cause heavy rainfall.

"If the low pressure (system) develops into a cyclone and heads towards India there could be heavy rains. Currently, we are watching the situation," M Mohapatra, head of India Meteorological Department's cyclone division, told ET. A cyclone usually has the energy of 100 hydrogen bombs and the potential to drastically change the weather system. Cyclones in the past have hurt the monsoon, but the current storm, according to Skymet, has had a positive impact. "The cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep has become more marked. It seems to be invigorating the onset of monsoon in Kerala. Once a weather system comes up in the Arabian Sea, the onset process of monsoon gets a boost. And this time the cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea, off Kerala and Karnataka coast, has brought favourable conditions for the onset of monsoon," said Skymet, which has predicted a normal monsoon, differing from the gloomy forecast of IMD.

Four Days Late

Monsoon has arrived four days later than normal, and is poised to drench Mumbai in a week and Delhi by early July. This year, the weather office uncharacteristically forecast a deficient monsoon, which ignited fears in the markets. The forecast was particularly depressing for farmers because they faced heavy losses due to erratic rain last year, and lost more in March and April when unseasonal rain destroyed crops on the eve of harvest.

The monsoon is vital as most farmers depend entirely on rainfall to irrigate their crops. Rice and oilseeds are grown primarily in the monsoon-dependent kharif season.

However, wheat is grown mainly in the rabi season. India's grain output depended heavily on the monsoon season in the past, but now the share of rabi has overtaken kharif output, making the country relatively less vulnerable to the vagaries of the monsoon. India's main grain-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana and western UP are forecast to face weaker rainfall than the rest of the country, but this region is also equipped with the best network of irrigation facilities, helping farmers withstand weak rain. Government officials said they were not taking any chances and were ready to crack down on hoarders and traders if there were any attempts to manipulate the market and raise prices abnormally.