Second half of monsoon may see rains turning erratic in India

Conflicting atmospheric conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean could lead to a normal to above normal rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season and augur well for sowing. However, the second half of the season may get volatile rains affecting irrigation, said experts.

"There could be a battle between La Nina and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), resulting in normal monsoon during the first two months but rainfalls could waver or become volatile during the second half of monsoon," said GP Sharma, president-meteorology and climate change at Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.

According to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia's national weather, climate and water agency, oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean La Nina, which is an indicator of the monsoon, remains active in the tropical Pacific Ocean.


However, IOD is currently neutral and could turn negative by August, the Bureau said. IOD is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

"More than 60% of the times La Nina conditions are favourable for the Indian monsoon. However, the Indian Dipole and their combination create some uncertainty. So they have to be seen in combination," said AK Mitra, director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

The Australian weather forecast is an important factor taken into account while predicting the monsoon in India. Monsoon rain this year will be normal and well distributed across the country, the Indian Meteorological Department had said last month.

The June-September monsoon is vital for farm output and economic growth as about 60% of India's farmland depends on rainfall.

'Punjab, Haryana Will Manage'
Experts said that the monsoon pattern this year is favourable for sowing.

However, farmers may face difficulty during the second half of the year in the rain-fed areas like Maharashtra, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Odisha.

"The food bowl of northern India, which is Punjab and Haryana, is rich in resources and can be managed. However, in the rain-fed areas, farmers will have to choose their crops wisely keeping in mind the forecast of volatile rains," Sharma of Skymet added.

The southwest monsoon contributes 74.9% to annual rainfall and has a bearing on the rural demand for consumer goods, gold, cars, motorcycles, tractors, farm equipment, and inputs such as pesticides, fertilisers and seeds.