Meltdown impact on India likely to cease by end-2009: Montek

NEW DELHI: Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Tuesday hoped that the impact of the global economic downturn on India would cease by this year end and said over half the Indian population would not be significantly affected by it.

"I hope that by the end of 2009 it will be possible to say that the worst is behind us. Once the global conditions became normal, India will be able to return to a growth rate of eight to nine per cent," he said at the R N Kao Memorial Lecture organised by the Research and Analyses Wing here.

Claiming the financial meltdown as one of the biggest intelligence failures, he said the crisis would demonstrate the "resilience" of the Indian economy.

Ahluwalia said 50-60 per cent of the population, who are dependent on agriculture, "will not be significantly affected by the crisis. ... It may not be a downturn for the bottom 50 per cent of the population. They will be affected much less."

He said the agricultural growth rate in the past four years averaged at 3.6 per cent compared with only two per cent in the previous four years. "The (erstwhile) boom has not bypassed the rural areas."

Replying to a question, the top Planning Commission officer allayed apprehensions of any grave food crisis affecting India and ruled out food riots taking place here.

"We don't anticipate any food crisis, let me put it categorically," he said and recommended a "better structured agriculture policy to encourage precision and more scientific farming." Ahluwalia also opposed free supply of water and electricity for farming.