India's Industrial output at 14-month low in October

New Delhi: India's industrial output fell to a 14-month low of 0.4% year-on-year in October from 4.6% in September, as the impact of the goods and services tax (GST)-led boost in manufacturing waned, official data published Monday showed. Persistently high US tariffs also dented merchandise output.

The statistics ministry attributed the slowdown to fewer working days due to a cluster of festivals, including Dussehra, Diwali and Chhath.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had climbed 3.7% in October 2024.

"The GST rate cut led to an upswing in manufacturing output in September 2025. It was followed by a respite in October given the festive holidays," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. "Besides, the adverse impact of US tariffs and penalties is also likely to have affected production across some manufacturing sub-segments."

The US imposed a 25% tariff on India, besides a 25% penalty for importing Russian oil.

"A substantial decline in merchandise exports (by 11.8% on-year), some moderation in government capex (which was frontloaded to the first half of the fiscal), and fewer working days in October explain the gauge's weaker growth," said Dipti Deshpande, principal economist, Crisil.

While output fell across all three production-based segments, the surprise came from manufacturing, where growth eased to 1.8% in October from 5.6% in September.

Delayed withdrawal of rains affected both mining and electricity output, which declined by 1.8% and 6.9%, respectively, in October.

November Data

Nayar noted that it would be more prudent to assess the average for October and November, once the data for the latter month becomes available, given the base effects and shifts in the festive calendar between 2025 and 2024.

Within the manufacturing sector, nine out of 23 industry groups recorded positive growth in October. Major contributors included manufacture of basic metals (6.6%), manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (6.2%) and manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (5.8%).

By use-based classification, all categories rose except primary goods, consumer durables and consumer non-durables.

Consumer durables and non-durables output fell by 0.5% and 4.4%, respectively. "This would need to be monitored for the next two months where traction in positive direction should be seen," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

Primary goods output slipped by 0.6%, while intermediate goods rose 0.9%.