India's FY22 growth revised down to 10.4% from 11%: SBI Research

India’s growth in the ongoing fiscal was expected at a lower 10.4% compared to 11% earlier on account of the increasing restrictions across states, according to State Bank of India (SBI) Research.

Ramping up Covid-19 vaccination efforts rather than lockdowns would be the preferred way to thwart the surging second wave of the pandemic in India, SBI Research said in a report on Friday.

The cost of vaccinating half the population of 13 major states would be around 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) or 15-20% of states’ health budget, assuming that the Centre would bear the cost of vaccinating the other half of this population, the report said.


This was significantly lower than the 0.7% of GDP or Rs 1.5 lakh crore of estimated economic loss due to existing restrictions, it said, adding that Maharashtra alone accounted for 54% of this figure.

While various leading economic indicators showed improvements in March, the SBI business activity index dropped to a five-month low to 86.3 for the week ended April 19.

“India must vaccinate its population with the single minded focus to achieve herd immunity and avoid any further waves as other countries are facing,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor at SBI, in the report.

The country posted another day of a world record-high 332,730 fresh Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours. The report noted that there has been an uptick in daily new cases in districts where the Kumbh Mela, state elections and farmer protests were held.

Experience from other countries showed that infections stabilised after about 15% of the population received the second dose of the vaccine while the figure in India currently stood at 1.2%, the report said.

SBI Research estimated that India would fully vaccinate 15% of its population only by December, adding that the top 15 countries accounted for 84% of global vaccinations indicating huge unevenness.

The third wave peak in cases in countries like the US and Japan have turned out to be worse than the second wave, SBI Research said, adding, “We as a country cannot afford any 3rd wave”.