India’s emissions to rise 4.4% despite global dip: Study

Antalya: Growth in renewable energy capacity and adoption of electric vehicles are projected to result in a 0.4% reduction in carbon emissions from fossil fuels this year, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.

Disruption in oil and gas supplies and the ensuing energy crisis due to the war in the Persian Gulf are also an important cause of reduction in emissions, it said. Major economies, such as China, the US, the European Union and Japan, are projected to register decreases in fossil emissions, the report said. However, India's emissions are projected to increase by 4.4%, faster than the 3.5% average annual growth over the last decade.

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The decline in carbon emissions, while "encouraging", driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution, said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter. The impact of the disruption in oil and gas supplies was clear from a 1.9% reduction in carbon emissions from oil and a 0.3% decrease from gas. The study described it as a short-term response to the energy crisis triggered by the war in the Persian Gulf. The decline is partly offset by a 0.6% increase in emissions from coal.

While this decline is notable, especially as emissions rose 1.2% in 2025, the report's authors warned that the clean energy growth was not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil carbon emissions. "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change," said Glen Peters, research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

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China's emissions in 2026 are projected to decrease by 0.9%; this comes on the back of two years of low emissions growth. Besides a strong reduction in oil emissions, electricity generation from renewables in China continues to grow, offsetting a 0.3% increase in emissions from coal. China produces 32% of global fossil emissions, and it is also the most active in deploying clean technologies and increasing carbon sinks through reforestation, the study pointed out. Half of the global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles are in China, it said.

Emissions in the US are projected to decrease by 1.3%, mainly due to a decrease in emissions from coal. The drop is estimated at 1.5% in the EU and 1% in Japan. The remaining carbon budget - the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - is now 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate. Peters said accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles were pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes were not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions.

The effect of electric vehicles is growing rapidly but remains small because the vehicle stock takes time to be replaced, with only about 10% of the car fleet electrified in 2025. Emissions avoided by solar and wind power rose from 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025, and are projected to be 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026.

Sustained peak and decline in global carbon emissions could be a "few years away" if further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, the report said. "Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years," said Corinne Le Quere, Royal Society Research professor at UEA's School of Environmental Sciences.