Indian economy on upward trajectory: NCAER's cites favorable above-normal monsoon forecast

The Indian economy's recent performance has been strong, with promising signs for the future, according to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). In its April 2024 Monthly Economic Review (MER), the NCAER highlighted several key indicators showing the economy's resilience. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, for example, reached a 16-year high, indicating robust growth. Additionally, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), a leading digital payments system, recorded its highest volume of transactions since its inception in 2016.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections also saw a significant increase, reaching Rs 1.8 lakh crore in March, the second-highest since its introduction in 2017. Similarly, UPI transactions in March 2024 totaled 13.4 billion, marking a substantial 55.3% year-on-year growth.

The NCAER report also highlighted positive global economic forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which are expected to benefit the Indian economy in the current year.


Poonam Gupta, Director General of NCAER, commented on the findings, stating, "These high-frequency indicators, coupled with a more benign global outlook projected by the IMF and WTO, bode well for the Indian economy during the current year."

Inflation indicators also showed positive trends, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation decreasing to 4.9% in March from 5.1% in February. Core inflation followed a similar trajectory, falling to 3.2% during the same period.

However, the report noted mixed trends in employment indicators. While there was an increase in the number of net new subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on a year-on-year basis, overall online hiring activities moderated year-on-year according to the Naukri JobSpeak Index.

(With inputs from PTI)