India won’t edge towards drought: Officials

NEW DELHI: India received just a little over half the rains it usually gets in the past week ended Wednesday, but meteorologists say it is too early to be worried because monsoon showers could pick up in the coming weeks.

“It’s a typical start for a below normal monsoon year. But we will see rainfall catching up as the southwest monsoon progresses,” said an official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The June-September southwest monsoon that brings about 70 per cent of India’s annual rains is projected to be weaker than normal this year. Some meteorologists expect the development of El Nino, a weather pattern that may affect rains in India and has been blamed from draught in 2002, 2004 and 2009.

Experts have played down the chances of a drought this year and said even good monsoon years have a bad start and that June can be a rainfall deficit month.

“El Nino years witness sharp contrast in the amount and spread of rainfall. So while we will see June to be a scanty rainfall month, by August the rainfall would be decent enough to make the monsoon reach below-normal levels (and not drought),” said Jatin Singh, chief executive of Delhi-based Skymet Weather services. He said there is always a balancing factor in El Nino years so the India won’t edge towards drought.

In its latest monsoon update, the IMD said out of the 36 sub-division areas, 22 have received scanty rainfall and just three areas, all in the North East, got excess rains in the past seven days.

Overall, rains were 48 per cent below the average rains received during the same period in the past 50 years. For the IMD, 96 per cent to 104 per cent of this long-term average – now 89 centimeters for the year – is normal. In the current season, the monsoon arrived on the southern coast five days behind the normal June 1.