India to see 4.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal: OECD

NEW DELHI: India's GDP growth could fall to 4.5 per cent in 2012, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD) said on Tuesday citing euro zone debt crisis as the biggest threat to the world economy even as the member countries of the currency union put out a bailout package for Greece that got a thumbs up from markets.

The forecast for India beats even the 4.9 per cent put out by the IMF last month. The OECD had pegged India's growth 1n 2012 at 7.3 per cent in its June 2012 forecast.

In its bi-annual assessment, OECD Economic Outlook, the Paris-based think tank has said the global economic recovery will gain momentum slowly, and lowered the global growth estimate for the current year to 2.9 per cent from 3.4 per cent in its earlier forecast and that of 2013 to 3.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

The OECD called for 'decisive policy action' 'to ensure that stalemate over fiscal policy in the US and continuing euroarea instability do not plunge the world back into recession' listing excessive fiscal tightening in the US as the second biggest risk to the global economy.

"The world economy is far from being out of the woods," OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said during the launch of the report in Paris and raised the concerns that the US 'fiscal cliff', if it materialises, could tip the world's biggest economy into recession.

India will declare its GDP numbers for the July-September quarter on Friday amid concerns that growth could fall to less than 5 per cent.

Indian economy grew 5.3 per cent in January-March and 5.5 per cent in April-June quarters. The OECD expects the recent reforms to yield dividend after a while.

"The (Indian) economy has experienced a broad-based slowdown and growth is expected to remain weak for some time," the OECD said.