India has shown ‘quite a lot of resilience’ to oil price shock, says IMF as it welcomes stronger statistical framework

India has so far shown considerable resilience to the rise in energy prices, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, even as it monitors the impact of higher oil costs on the economy ahead of its next round of growth forecasts in October.

Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the IMF, said higher energy and oil prices typically put pressure on the balance of payments of countries that depend on energy imports and can also weigh on their fiscal positions. India, however, entered the latest shock from a relatively stronger economic position, she said.

Also Read: IMF says India remains growth engine for world, monitoring impact of higher oil prices


"When energy or oil prices increase, it puts pressure on the balance of payments of energy importers and can also affect their fiscal positions... In India's case, the shock has occurred at a time when the country has been in a stronger economic position. We are monitoring the effects of higher oil prices on the Indian economy and will announce our new forecasts for India in October... So far, India has shown quite a lot of resilience to the energy price shock," Kozack said.

The IMF's assessment comes after India's real gross domestic product expanded 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY27, exceeding both the multilateral lender's expectations and estimates from other forecasters.

“India's real GDP in the second quarter grew by 7.8 per cent. That was above our staff's expectations and also the consensus among other observers. This upward surprise was driven by stronger-than-expected activity in the services sector and in exports,” Kozack said during a press briefing on Thursday.

“The outturn also underscores the resilience of the Indian economy despite the energy price shock. It also means that India does remain a key growth engine for the world,” she added.

Also Read: Nirmala Sitharaman and IMF Deputy MD Nigel Clarke discuss India's economic outlook and global growth

According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India's real GDP stood at ₹81.36 lakh crore in the April-June quarter of FY27, compared with ₹75.46 lakh crore in the corresponding period of FY26.

The 7.8% expansion was also stronger than the Reserve Bank of India's earlier projection of 7% growth for the quarter.

The IMF's comments come amid scrutiny of India's latest GDP estimates and questions over the methodology and revisions underlying the data.

Addressing concerns over the credibility and transparency of India's economic statistics, Kozack welcomed recent changes to the country's statistical framework, including the incorporation of a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Producer Price Index (PPI) series.

“I can say that the latest GDP release, the one that we just talked about for Q2, it incorporated both a new index of industrial production. It also included a new producer price index series, and those two new series should help improve India's GDP estimates,” Kozack said.

She said the IMF viewed the changes as important steps towards modernising India's macroeconomic statistics, while calling for continued improvements in the quality and framework of economic data.

“And we welcome these important steps that India is taking to modernise its macroeconomic statistics. And of course, we encourage the authorities to continue to further strengthen the statistical framework and data quality along the lines that they're progressing,” she said.

The debate over India's GDP calculations intensified after former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the reported 7.8% real GDP growth for the April-June quarter.

Garg had raised questions over revisions to the previous year's GDP estimates at current prices, arguing that the figure had been revised from about ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore. He said that without the revision, growth at current prices would have been around 2.6%.

Against that backdrop, the IMF's assessment provides support for the broader picture of stronger-than-expected economic activity while also acknowledging the importance of continued improvements to India's statistical system.

The Fund is now assessing how the latest energy-price shock could affect India's economic outlook, with its updated forecasts for the country due in October.