IMD hits bull's eye for the first time with prediction of drought year

NEW DELHI: In April this year, the Indian Meteorological Department had stuck its neck out and warned the country of a second straight drought this year. It was IMD's bleakest monsoon forecast, the first time it had predicted a rain shortfall of more than 10 per cent. As it turned out, IMD was spot on.

As on September 24, the monsoon deficit for the season was 13 per cent, as against the department's forecast of 12 per cent. With less than a week to go for the end of the monsoon season (September 30), officials do not expect the deficit to change much.




"Our forecast had an error margin of 4 per cent on either side. The actual monsoon performance is likely to fall within a margin of 2 per cent," said B P Yadav, director, IMD.

IMD calls a countrywide monsoon shortfall of 10 per cent or more as 'deficient monsoon'. Popularly, it is known as a drought year - a term previously used by the department but later discontinued because, as an official put it, the entire country never faces a drought.

Although last year too, IMD had pared down its forecast in phases to eventually reflect the drought, this IMD prediction was a first in more than one way. It was the first time that IMD issued a forecast of deficient monsoon in April itself, and flowing from that, the first time that it accurately predicted a drought.

Officials say, coming as it did in the shadow of last year's drought, it wasn't easy for the department to go along with the scientific findings and issue a forecast warning of a second straight drought in the country.

As Yadav put it, "It required a lot of courage for us to come out with this kind of a prediction this year."

IMD's director-general L S Rathore said the early warning about this year's weak monsoon helped farmers cope with the situation much better. "Our advisories to farmers on sowing short-duration crops, and those requiring less water, such as pulses, were followed by farmers in a big way. That's how such early warnings help the country," he said.

Rathore was also disappointed over the "disproportionate" attention given by a section of the media to a private weather company's forecast of a normal monsoon this year. "As of now, IMD alone has the infrastructure and the experience to make long range forecasts with a degree of accuracy in the country," he said.

Officials said after five days or so, the monsoon would swiftly start withdrawing from the country, beginning with parts of northwest India.

Back-to-back droughts are extremely rare, having occurred only thrice since 1900, the last instance being 1986-87.