Grain output at all time high

NEW DELHI: The farm ministry’s second advance crop production figures for 2007-08, put out on Thursday, sported an all-time high food grain output at 219.32 million tonnes and a record rice production, despite lower acreage.

However, output is set to fall substantially lower than the demand in the country and the consumer would have to factor in a higher overall food spend in the mid term.

Recent studies have projected a phenomenal growth in demand for food in later half of 11th Plan and beyond, up to 2020-21, at four times the current production.

In contrast, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has maintained that a 100% increase in productivity per hectare was sufficient for food grain output to meet the country’s demand.

A comprehensive new study by the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAEPR) has projected that the total demand for food grain would increase at 2% per year in the medium term, despite a slowdown in population growth (but not population per se), as also a phenomenal growth in the need for grain as feed and related purposes.

According to the study, ”Meeting the projected demand for food grain would require 1.86% annual growth in production during the 11th Plan...” India’s food grain production during the last 10 years (97-98 to 06-07) increased by a meagre 0.48% annually.

The demand hike is projected despite development-linked dietary changes among the population, a slower pace of population growth, higher incomes and declining per capita cereal intake.

Figures for output, demand and supply of food grain vary widely among different wings of the government. The farm ministry’s Department of Agriculture & Cooperation’s National Food Security Mission-tailored crop figures peg the difference in wheat supply and demand at a substantial 3.17 million tonnes in 07-08 (demand at 71.19 million tonnes and supply at 74.89 million tonnes).

The actual demand-supply gap will firm up only after early March. For rice, DAC figures show a supply-demand gap of 1.79 million tonnes, with an expected supply of 92.7 million tonnes.

Although mustard (Rabi) crop this year is believed to have been affected by bad weather, production is projected at 7.07 million tonnes against 7.44 million tonnes in 06-07. Both toor and gram (chana) output too have been downpegged but the overall pulses output, at 14.34 million tonnes, is pegged higher over 06-07 by 0.14 million tonnes.

What’s worse, the crop output figures have come out when the CSO has pegged farm sector growth at only 2.6% as compared to the EAC’s projection of a 3.7% growth.