Fiscal deficit may fall below revised estimate of 5.8%

The Centre's fiscal deficit could come in marginally lower than the downwardly revised estimate of 5.8% of GDP on the back of robust revenues and lower subsidy outgo, officials said.

Tax revenues could exceed the upwardly revised estimate of ₹26.99 lakh crore by ₹27,000 crore.

"Fiscal deficit is marginally narrower than even the revised estimates - both in percentage as well as absolute terms," a senior official told ET. FY24 fiscal deficit in absolute terms was pegged at ₹ 17.3 lakh crore. The government would announce its final accounts for FY24 on May 31. For the next financial year (FY25), the Centre has fixed the fiscal deficit target at 5.1% of the GDP.


"Revenue receipts have been better than expected ... .There has been some savings on account of lower subsidy bill," the official added. Both direct and indirect tax receipts have remained robust, the official added.

Direct tax receipts are expected to exceed revised estimates by about Rs 14,000 crore while indirect revenues, including customs and excise duty, by Rs 13,000 crore.

Non-tax revenue for FY24 is already up by ₹13,700 crore on account of higher dividend receipts from central public sector enterprises which exceeded the revised estimate of ₹50,000 crore at ₹63,700 crore on March 31, 2024.

The government had increased the FY24 allocation for fertiliser subsidy to ₹1.89 lakh crore from the budgeted ₹ 1.75 lakh crore. The lower subsidy outgo is attributed to moderating global fertiliser prices, reduced import volume, and efficient subsidy utilisation.

One nodal agency and just-in-time transfers have also led to savings in excess of ₹10,000 crore in FY24, the official said.