Experts' views on the robust Q2 GDP growth
India's Q2 GDP growth was above estimates at 8.9% vs 8.8% QoQ. Here is what the experts have to say about the GDP numbers:
Ashok Chawla, Finance Secretary
India's July-September quarter economic growth is on expected lines, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said on Tuesday.
India's economy grew a faster-than-expected 8.9 per cent in the September quarter from a year earlier, data released on Tuesday showed.
The GDP growth for the April-June quarter was revised upwards to 8.9 per cent from the provisional figure of 8.8 percent.
Asia's third-largest economy is expected to grow 8.5 per cent in the current fiscal to end-March 2011.
Sonal Varma, India Economist, Nomura Financial Advisory & Securities
GDP growth is definitely much higher than expected. The biggest surprise is from the non-agriculture sector which has seen a much robust performance. On a sequential basis, it is a very strong growth because we had a very adverse base affect from last year and therefore, the year over year numbers are very strong.
It is possible that part of the upward strong numbers are because of the new deflator but overall, very positive numbers definitely. The numbers we have got today, one cannot call it consolidating. 8.9% is a very strong growth rate and the next quarter also, we would expect a very strong growth rate and we will see some moderation in the final quarter of the year.
Ananth Narayan G, Head of fixed income, currencies, commodities for South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank
"The number is very strong. But headline inflation expected to be soft in December and January due to the base effect.
" Liquidity condition has already tightened further which is effectively more policy tightening. However, underlying inflation pressures remain strong due to high oil prices and now with the strong GDP data, RBI can be more bearish in its statement between now and December."
Deepali Bhargava, Economist, ING Vysya Bank
"Extremely bullish growth numbers across-the-board, specially construction. For the year, we are likely to exceed the targeted 8.5 per cent growth. We stick with our call of 25 basis point hike in Q1 2011."
Arun Kejriwal, Equity strategist, KRIS
"These are good numbers. If we did not have the tensions due to the scams, this kind of number would have pushed up the market by 100 points at least, but now we seem to be stuck at 50-60 points."
Rupa Rege Nitsure, Chief economist, Bank of Baroda
"With this reading, achieving a 8.5 per cent for full year growth target is not going to be difficult. From a market perspective, this means that India will attract more capital inflows and it will put upward pressure on the rupee.
"From the central bank perspective, this data will enable them to concentrate on inflation management. I expect the Reserve Bank of India to continue caliberating monetary policy.
"I expect another 25 basis points increase in both repo and reverve repo rates in the December policy and depending on the intensity of capital flows that the country attracts, there is a strong possibility of a CRR (cash reserve ratio) hike in the fourth quarter."
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