El Nino to affect only tail end of monsoon

NEW DELHI: In what could spell relief to the Narendra Modi government, there is a silver lining to the Met's sub-normal rainfall forecast as the disruptive El Nino event is likely to impact only the tail end of the monsoon.

The ministry of earth sciences and IMD assessment indicates that a moderate El Nino will develop only by August and its fallout will be experienced in September, the last month of the monsoon season.

The warming of the tropical Pacific that marks the El Nino phenomenon is expected to depress rains, but the effect may not be as worrisome as was earlier envisaged when forecasters began to analyze data.

IMD's 93% of long period average monsoon forecast -- less than the normal 96%-104% but above the 90% deficient mark - is based on a more optimistic assessment of El Nino and other factors.

Factors holding the deficient rating at bay include, besides the late impact of El Nino, a fortuitous lack of significant changes in wind conditions in the Pacific and a neutral Indian Ocean dipole.

"There is no change in the trade winds and the IOD is neutral. If all factors (IOD, trades) had been negative, the forecast would have been more severe," earth sciences secretary Shailesh Nayak told TOI.

If the monsoon keeps out of the deficient range, it could aid the government's efforts to revive growth without having to commit large resources to drought mitigation.

Besides the financial calculations, poor rains tend to depress the national mood that tends to dampen the investor sentiment. The "feel bad" of a deficient monsoon is something the new government would like to do without.

The slackening of trade winds that usually accompany an El Nino has not been detected and this means Pacific waters are still being pushed from east to west as is normally the case.

Stalling or reversal of trade winds leads to warmer water being bunched up in the east and central tropical Pacific and this marks a disruption of the ocean-atmospheric balance causing unusual weather.