El Nino threat looms large as data shows strong link to weak monsoons

The relationship between El Nino and India’s monsoon remains one of the most consistent climate signals, Times of India reported, with data showing that nearly 70% of El Nino years since 1980 have coincided with poor rainfall during the crucial June–September season.

The correlation is drawing fresh attention as global weather agencies warn that an El Nino event could take shape within the next two to three months—and may be stronger than earlier projected. Forecasts from agencies such as ECMWF point to a high probability of the phenomenon developing by May–June and intensifying into a potentially very strong episode, sometimes referred to as a “super El Nino,” by year-end.

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An analysis of El Nino years since 1980 done by Times of India, based on classification by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, shows that out of 13 such years, India’s monsoon was deficient or severely deficient in seven. Rainfall was below normal in two years, normal in three, and above normal in just one instance. Even among the “below normal” years, rainfall in 2018 hovered close to deficient levels.

Data from the India Meteorological Department, which follows a different method to identify El Nino years, tells a similar story. Of eight such years, six recorded deficient monsoons, including 2002 when rainfall fell below 80% of the long period average.

El Nino is characterised by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which disrupts global wind patterns and influences weather systems worldwide, often weakening India’s monsoon circulation.

There have, however, been notable exceptions. The most prominent is 1997, one of the strongest El Nino years on record, when India still received normal rainfall. That year, a favourable phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole helped offset the adverse impact, highlighting how regional ocean conditions can sometimes counterbalance Pacific-driven effects.

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There are also years like 2014, when Pacific warming influenced the monsoon despite a full-fledged El Nino not materialising.

With global consensus building around the likelihood of El Nino returning this summer, the focus is now on how strongly it develops—and whether other climatic factors can once again cushion its impact on India’s vital monsoon.