El Nino is strong but declining, repeat unlikely: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

PUNE: The scary El Nino, which is held responsible for extreme weather events across the world including the current drought in India, has been gradually declining is expected to be followed by a neutral state during most of the second half of 2016, said the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), in its El Nino update issued on Tuesday.

" El Niño remains strong, but continues its gradual decline. Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016," stated the BoM release.

According to BoM, close to the equator, the surface of the Pacific Ocean has now cooled by 0.5 °C since the El Niño peaked in late 2015. Below the ocean surface, cooler than average waters now extend into the central tropical Pacific Ocean. In the atmosphere, trade winds have recently returned to near-normal levels in the central and eastern Pacific, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been strongly negative in recent weeks.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models suggest the neutral state is the most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Niñ, with a repeat El Niño assessed as very unlikely.