Economic Survey 2026: CEA confident of India's 6.8%-7.2% growth aim for FY27 in real terms despite an upcoming tweak

India’s Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said he is confident that the country's economic growth is expected to remain strong in FY27, with real GDP projected between 6.8% and 7.2% even after a base year revision scheduled for February.

Speaking at a press conference following the presentation of the Economic Survey 2025-26, Nageswaran said the country’s growth momentum has strengthened alongside a significant easing in inflation, supported by robust domestic demand and moderated price pressures.

In August last year, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation had announced plans to revise the base year for key economic indicators. GDP and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) will be updated to 2022-23, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will adopt 2024 as its base year. The CPI revision incorporates data from the 2023-24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey to better reflect structural changes in the economy.


Real GDP growth has shown steady improvement in recent years. “If you look at the last few years in comparison to pre-COVID average, real GDP growth pre-COVID was 6.4% and in FY25 was 6.5% and this year it is predicted to be 7.4%,” the CEA said. The growth projection for FY26 stands at 7.4%.

The Economic Survey, tabled earlier in the Lok Sabha, highlighted strong domestic fundamentals including consumption and investment are driving growth. "Private consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth remains resilient, increasing from 6.8 per cent in FY12-FY20 to 7.2 per cent in FY25, before moderating slightly to 7.0 per cent in FY26. Meanwhile, investment activity has picked up sharply, with real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) growth rising from 6.3% in FY12-FY20 to 7.1 per cent in FY25, and further to 7.8 per cent in FY26, underscoring sustained capital formation," he said.

Nageswaran said these trends indicate a resilient domestic economy capable of maintaining high growth even amid technical adjustments to economic measurement.

What the survey said on India's growth

The Survey noted that India’s potential growth rate has been revised upward to 7% from 6.5% three years ago, reflecting gains from structural reforms, higher public investment, improved logistics, and strengthening supply-side conditions.

The Economic Survey highlighted that India’s large domestic market, strong macroeconomic framework, and relatively low external vulnerabilities leave the country better placed than most major economies, even as global growth faces rising uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and risks in leveraged investments in technology and artificial intelligence.

“The economy retains momentum and growth is likely to be sustained into FY27,” the Survey noted, adding that domestic buffers such as healthy banking sector balance sheets, comfortable liquidity, robust credit growth, low external liabilities, and adequate foreign exchange reserves provide resilience against global shocks.

The Survey also cautioned that prolonged geopolitical turbulence could affect capital flows and currency stability. “The rupee's valuation does not accurately reflect India's economic fundamentals,” it said, while noting that an undervalued currency may help exports but extended volatility could affect investor confidence.

Against this backdrop, the Survey stressed the importance of policy credibility, predictability, and administrative discipline as strategic assets. It called for simultaneous growth maximisation and shock absorption—“running a marathon and a sprint at the same time”—through stronger domestic manufacturing, diversified trade routes, and structural reforms.

“In an uncertain and contested world, India’s growth story remains intact,” the Survey concluded, noting that resilience, adaptability, and long-term policy commitment will be key to sustaining momentum towards a developed India.