Economic Survey 2014: Erratic rains no dampener on food stocks

NEW DELHI: Erratic rainfall may affect output of kharif crops, particularly oilseeds and pulses, but there is no cause for alarm as the country has adequate stocks after bumper harvests in the past, the Economic Survey said.

This year's rainfall has been 42 per cent below average, raising fears of food inflation and possible drought although the weather office says the monsoon will revive in July and August.

Forecasters say the El Nino phenomenon, likely to develop this year, would disrupt the monsoon, but the government says it is not a crisis situation at all. "On a positive note, there appears to be no cause for alarm on the El Nino front as India is wellplaced on foodgrains availability," it said.

In June, the Food and Agriculture Organisation ( FAO) forecast a comfortable global scenario for 2014-15 with high stocks-to-use ratios of cereals and stable prices, the survey said.

It said El Nino is associated with deficit rainfall in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Bihar. It said the weather office had predicted lower rainfall in rainfed parts of central, south and northwest India, "which may affect crops like rice, soybean, cotton, maize, jowar, groundnut and sugarcane".

The government has also put in place contingency measure in about 500 districts to combat dry weather. Western India has seen a severe shortfall in monsoon rain, particularly in Gujarat, where the deficit is 80 per cent to 90 per cent.