Economic Survey 2011-12: Minimum agricultural growth required for inclusive growth

NEW DELHI: The Economic Survey 2011-12, tabled in the Parliament on Thursday said the following on on agriculture & food:

Agriculture has been a way of life and continues to be the single most important livelihood of the masses. Agricultural policy focus in India across decades has been on self-sufficiency and self-reliance in foodgrains production. Considerable progress has been made on this front. Foodgrains production rose from 52 million tonnes in 1951-52 to 244.78 million tonnes in 2010-11.

The share of agriculture in real GDP has fallen given its lower growth rate relative to industry and services. However, what is of concern is that growth in the agricultural sector has quite often fallen short of the Plan targets. During the period 1960-61 to 2010-11, food grains production grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2 per cent.

In fact, the Ninth and Tenth Five Year Plans witnessed agricultural sectoral growth rate of 2.44 per cent and 2.30 per cent respectively compared to 4.72 per cent during Eighth Five Year Plan. During the current Five Year plan, agriculture growth is estimated at 3.28 per cent against a target of 4 per cent.

The Approach Paper to the Twelfth Five Year Plan emphasises the need to “redouble our efforts to ensure that 4.0 per cent average growth” is achieved during the Plan if not more.

Without incremental productivity gains and technology diffusion across regions, achieving this higher growth may not be feasible and has implications for the macroeconomic stability given the rising demand of the 1.2 billion people for food. Achieving minimum agricultural growth is a pre-requisite for inclusive growth, reduction of poverty levels, development of the rural economy and enhancing of farm incomes.