Due to demand-supply mismatches, pulses inflation to stay high till October: Experts

Demand-supply mismatches could keep prices of pulses elevated until the new crop starts arriving in the market in October, putting further pressure on already high food inflation, say experts.

Higher prices of pulses - tur, chana and urad - despite myriad measures to keep them under check have been a cause of concern for the government.

In April, inflation in pulses was 16.8%, with tur at 31.4%, gram at 14.6% and urad at 14.3%. Pulses account for a 6% weight in the food basket and 2.4% in the overall consumer basket for inflation calculation. Food inflation accelerated to 8.7% in April from 8.5% the previous month.


"New crop comes October onwards, and given that tur production was down last year, there would be lower stocks, which will exert pressure on prices," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda. Monsoon's progress will drive sentiment on inflation in pulses, which will be in double digits till then, Sabnavis said. "Pulses inflation has been in double digits for 11 months and is unlikely to ease until the end of the second quarter of FY24," said Paras Jasrai, senior analyst at India Ratings & Research.

This will be one of the push factors for food inflation, Jasrai said, adding: "If monsoon conditions are not conducive, the pulse inflation could stay higher for an even longer period."

"The next sowing of pulses - mainly tur and urad - will only start in June-July after the onset of monsoon, with harvest for urad happening in October-November while that of tur starting January," said Suresh Agarwal, president of the All India Dal Mill Association. Although some pulses, especially moong, are also sown in the summer season between rabi and kharif, their production is not significant enough to cause any major impact on prices.

Playing catch up
Even though India is the largest producer of pulses in the world, local consumption exceeds production. To meet the shortfall, the country imports pulses. India's output of pulses in the 2022-23 crop year was 26.05 million tonnes. Annual consumption is estimated at 28 million tonnes, which is growing steadily with increasing purchasing power of the consumer.

For the last two years, India has seen a fall in the production of tur and urad, forcing the government to ease import restrictions. Last year, the government placed tur, urad and masoor (lentils) under a zero-duty import regime till March 2024. The deadline has now been extended to March 2025. In early December 2023, the Centre also allowed duty-free imports of yellow peas until March 2024. This too was extended till June.