Despite lean monsoon forecast, above average rainfall to help farm output

NEW DELHI: The monsoon has accelerated further, expanding this season’s surplus rain to 23% after another day of exceptionally heavy showers, laying foundation for a good farm output, but experts say rainfall pattern in July and August can make or break the kharif harvest.

The weather office has forecast a 12% shortfall in this year’s monsoon, but rainfall has been 23% above average so far, which augurs well for agriculture as the early surge in the monsoon has increased soil moisture, which will help crops withstand dry patches.
"With the current spell of rains, a deficit rain as stated by IMD doesn’t look to pose a serious challenge,"said B Mohan Kumar, ADG, agronomy, Indian Council of Agricultural Research. He said July rainfall is critical for planting crops in rain-fed areas and important for growth of plants in fields. He said farmers depend heavily on July and August rainfall."In July the plant is in grand growth phase … This is a critical phase,"he said.

The weather office in its updated forecast in June said rainfall in July would be 92 % and in August 90% of the long period average. The forecast has a model error of 9%.So far, monsoon has delivered 23% surplus rainfall. Kumar said that 92% rainfall in July was not a major concern as of date.

KK Singh, head, agromet services, the India Meteorological Department, said that good intra-seasonal distribution of monsoon rains in July would have little impact on agricultural growth and production.

If rains are unevenly distributed then it can be of concern in some pockets, he said. He said the July and August rainfall was crucial."July month provides the window for farmers who were unable to plant crop or saw failure in planting in June. In this very month the maximum area under paddy is transplanted from nurseries to fields.

Also a number of coarse grain cereals like sorgum, maize, millets and horticulture crops are planted."Paddy constitutes more than 60% of the kharif crop with acreage of over 38 -39 million hectares.

Farmers like Ajit Singh in village BItna of Panchkula district said that rains in July will help in saving irrigation cost. "Good rains are crucial even if you have irrigation facility for the plant growth," he said.