Despite global tensions, India’s business sentiment rebounds in Q2 FY27: NCAER

India’s business sentiment rebounded in the second quarter of this fiscal year, with the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rising to 107.8 from 99.8 in the April–June quarter, ending a four-quarter period of moderation driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the latest NCAER Business Expectations Survey.

Conducted in September by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the survey sampled 502 companies across different sizes in six major cities: Delhi NCR in the north, Bengaluru and Chennai in the south, Kolkata in the east, and Mumbai and Pune in the west.

"Though BCI improved, it was lower than the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year (142.6 in 2025−26: Q2)," it said.


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The BCI evaluates four key parameters: expectations of improved macro-economic conditions over the next six months, expectations of better firm financial health over the next six months, a favorable current investment climate, and present capacity utilization at or near optimal levels.

All four parameters recorded gains, driving the quarter-over-quarter uptick in business sentiment.

"The share of firms expecting 'overall economic conditions to improve in the next six months' increased from 43 per cent in 2026-27: Q1 to 50 per cent in 2026-27: Q2," NCAER said.

Confidence regarding firm financial prospects over the coming six months expanded from 37% in Q1 to 41% in Q2. Similarly, positive assessments of the current investment climate grew from 26% to 30%. Opinions on optimal capacity utilization also saw an increase, climbing from 91% in the first quarter to 94% in the second.

Segment-wise, the BCI for MSMEs moved up from 93 to 100, while for large enterprises it rose from 111.6 to 120.3.

NCAER's Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey, said, "The data indicate a broad-based recovery in sentiments across both MSMEs and large firms".

"Overall business prospects improved both domestically and externally, and cost sentiments have moderated," she added.