Conditions favourable for monsoon over Kerala: IMD

PUNE: The India Meteorological Department has forecast that conditions are favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives-Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and the Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.

Also, an experimental real-time monsoon forecast by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has indicated that monsoon activity in June will be mainly confined to the west coast, northeast India and southern peninsula. Several factors prevailing around June 12 will hamper the setting of monsoon over the mainland.

The IMD forecast said that the monsoon will move to some parts of northeastern states during the next 72 hours. A feeble offshore trough at mean sea level runs off Karnataka-Kerala coasts, IMD officials said. The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Pakistan has moved away north-eastwards. The cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and neighbouring areas has become less marked, they said.

Scientists at IITM told TOI that the rainfall would be confined to west coast and northeast India till June 15. "This forecast predicts the rainfall pattern for June. It suggests that the region (west coast and northeast) will see good rainfall activity in June, while the Indian mainland, i.e. central and northern India, would not," said an IITM scientist.

The forecast further stated that the surface pressure gradient pattern and low-level circulation indicates that a monsoon trough will be developing around June 12 over the Indo-Gangetic plains.

"Usually a trough suggests more rainfall activity over the region as it creates a low pressure zone. Despite the trough, circulation over the Indian mainland does not seem favorable throughout June. Also, the presence of a ridge, east of the Western Ghats (anti-cyclonic circulation over central India) will hamper the setting of monsoon over the country. The ridge seems to be preventing the entrance of moist winds from the Arabian Sea to the land," he said.

The strengthening and progression of monsoon is expected to be slow till June 18, with chances that monsoon may reach central India only as a feeble current by June 20.

"The forecast also suggests that it will be over peninsular India up to June 25 and may advance to Central India afterwards," said the scientist.

* The forecast predicts rainfall pattern for June

* West coast and northeast India will see good rainfall activity this month, while central and northern India would not

* A monsoon trough will develop around June 12 over the Indo-Gangetic plains

* Presence of a ridge, east of the Western Ghats will hamper the setting of monsoon

* Monsoon may reach central India by June 20