Availability of the Covid vaccine to every Indian could be a game-changer: UBS report

Even as India grapples with “recession” as the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell down in two consecutive quarters, a covid vaccine could be a game changer, a UBS report said.

The report said that with the help of vaccinations, virus cases will start to fall visibly by mid-2021, with effective herd immunity reached globally by year-end. We note that there is also the risk that our optimistic view on the vaccine is not met due to efficacy or logistic problems.

“While Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine could matter more globally, we think the availability of AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines with standard cold chain needs will be more feasible for India. Both have tie-ups with Serum Institute of India for manufacturing and supplying to India and other developing countries. We note that India is one of the largest vaccine manufacturers globally,” the report said.


India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% between July and September, compared to the same quarter a year before. Between April to June Indian economy contracted by 23.9% as against the same period in 2019. While the contraction—7.5%-- was much lower than what many predicted, this has caused fear that the country could slip further into recession.

More than vaccine availability, it is the effective deployment that matters the UBS report said. “India already has the world's largest Universal Immunization Program (UIP) in place, which administers c390m vaccines annually (mostly to children and pregnant women). Notably, unlike the UIP, the private sector could play a meaningful role in the COVID vaccination program along with the public sector in increasing overall healthcare capacity. As a precursor, some cities have already seen private sector diagnostic labs handling more COVID-19 tests than government hospitals in recent months,” the report added.