Australian weather office predicts El Nino by September; monsoon fears persist

NEW DELHI: While fears of a weak Indian monsoon persist, the Australian weather department’s latest forecast suggests that El Niño may develop by September, a little later than the previously expected August. This will come as a relief to India’s planners since it suggests that the Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon will only pose a threat to the June-September southwest monsoon in the last month of the season.

However, this doesn’t mean that the monsoon will be at normal levels in the first three months. Rain has already been patchy and below normal in the first two weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Australian weather department's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño alert, indicating at least a 70% chance of it developing this year.

"Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks," said the Australian weather department report on Tuesday. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development, it said.

"Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014," said the report. Australia’s spring runs from September to November.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

India’s monsoon rain remains confined to a narrow western coastal belt, delaying crop planting and giving the jitters to a government that’s counting on good harvests to prop up the shaky economy and control prices. In the June 1-16 period, only 7 % of the country received normal rainfall.

Conditions are likely to become favourable for the further advance of the monsoon in the next three days into more areas of interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, remaining parts of the Bay of Bengal and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and some regions of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar, the India Meteorological Department has said

With the monsoon delayed, severe heat wave conditions are expected in north coastal Andhra Pradesh and some parts of Telangana. Heat wave conditions are also likely at isolated areas in Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha.

On Tuesday, isolated heavy rainfall may occur over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms accompanied by moderate squalls may occur at isolated areas in Jharkhand and West Bengal according to IMD.