An El Nino year? Australia too sees rain deficit this monsoon in India

NEW DELHI: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has confirmed that 2014 would be an El Nino year, hence also establishing the line of forecast that India could witness a below normal rainfall this monsoon.

“The likelihood of El Nino remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Nino is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Nino thresholds may be exceeded as early as July,” said the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) wrap up report by BOM issued on Tuesday.

El Nino is an oceanic phenomenon, which emerges after a gap of every 3 to 7 years. Warm water temperature develops around the Pacific coast of South America leading to fluctuating weather across Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures increase above normal by 0.5 degree.

The report mentioned that due to the emergence of El Nino, western Pacific and Indonesian regions would witness below normal rainfall and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Nino is usually associated with below average rainfall. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which indicates the impact of El Nino on the Indian subcontinent, is currently in a neutral state.

“Model outlooks currently suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring,” said the report.