4 states, 5 crops at highest risk due to deficient rains

MUMBAI: An analysis of rainfall data till August 16, 2015, using CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, shows four states -- Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh -- and five crops -- jowar, soyabean, tur, maize and cotton – are most hurt by deficient rains.

These states contribute 34 per cent to total foodgrain production in India, while jowar, soyabean, tur and maize total up 26 per cent of the total foodgrain and oilseed output.

DRIP captures the interaction between the most critical aspect of vulnerability (irrigation) and weather shocks. DRIP scores help identify crops and regions hurt relatively more by weak rains.

This fiscal, the importance of monsoon, and therefore agriculture, is magnified because the non-farm part of the Indian economy has been struggling, as underscored by poor investment and manufacturing activity. If monsoon ends up being deficient overall this fiscal, too, it would mark two failures in a row, which will be harder to deal with.

Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL Ltd, says: "India has suffered weather-related turbulence for years but what is worrying is that with rising frequency of such events, the impact is getting increasingly amplified because holistic efforts to reduce structural vulnerabilities are lacking. We believe investing in Indian agriculture’s future has become economically and politically critical. The government needs to change the templates, and quickly so."